LIN – Paid betting tips

Pre-season predictions, who’d make them? Year after year they make pundits and fans alike look as if they know very little about the Premier League.

This campaign is no different, and could actually argue its case for being the most unpredictable for a good few seasons.

Southampton? Almost certain to be doomed after their backbone was picked off at will in the summer. Liverpool would hold off Manchester United to retain a place in the Champions League.

Looking back at the predicted table I filed three months ago, only rock-bottom Burnley, table-topping Chelsea and rejuvenated Newcastle sit in the correct positions.

Rather unsurprisingly, it is Ronald Koeman’s Saints who are the biggest movers – by a huge 13 places.

They lie second – four points behind the Blues and four ahead of Manchester City – and are, without striking a too patronising tone, the surprise package thus far.

Any passing glance at the top flight table would bring a look of astonishment.

West Ham United comfortably nestled in the top four ahead of Arsenal and Manchester United. Garry Monk’s Swansea, tipped by many to really struggle, only behind the Hammers on goal difference.

This is a team, that starts with Marvin Emnes up front, in a stronger position than sides with Alexis Sanchez and Angel di Maria. Further proof that while English football isn’t blessed with the quality of other countries, it is possibly the most absorbing competition.

Moving down into the bottom half, we find Liverpool and Tottenham. Eleven games into a season.

That is just not good enough for clubs of their stature. Brendan Rodgers is worse off points-wise than Roy Hodgson was after the same stage of the 2010-11 season, while Mauricio Pochettino must pick up 13 points from his next five to match the total of Andre Villas-Boas in 2013-14.

There are extenuating circumstances with both managers – Rodgers has brought Champions League football while Pochettino inherited a dishevelled squad – but their problems make this Premier League utterly unpredictable.

Liverpool – going off Sportsmail’s pre-season table – have been the biggest disappointment so far. Rivals Everton haven’t fared much better after a string of draws and a defence which has been more porous than last season.

Ninth-placed Stoke City haven’t surprised too much given their decent finish to last season, while Alan Pardew has transformed the fortunes of Newcastle in little more than a fortnight.

Harry Redknapp may be slightly disappointed with Queens Park Rangers’ start to life at the top – only Burnley have started worse – but has players coming back to fitness and a striker in Charlie Austin who cannot stop scoring.

They were exemplary against Manchester City in the 2-2 draw at the weekend, their efforts deserving more.

Manuel Pellegrini’s side aren’t too far off where they are expected to finish – behind Chelsea – but would have found this term far trickier had others not performed so poorly.

Hull City haven’t managed to kick on as they might have after a summer in which they spent big money on Jake Livermore, Abel Hernandez and Robert Snodgrass, although the latter has suffered a severe injury setback.

Alan Irvine is proving you don’t need a wealth of experience at the top to engineer results – even if they did lose against Newcastle on Sunday. The new West Brom head coach has the Baggies in 13th largely without their £10m record signing Brown Ideye.

Other than the top and bottom, the only certainties, it seems, are that Aston Villa and Sunderland will loiter in lower mid-table.

2013 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix is the 3rd last race of the year. It is on Nov 3rd, 2013 and the race takes place at the Yas Marina Circuit. This race track is probably one of the more fascinating tracks as it has a massive hotel right in the centre of the action. The track was designed by Hermann Tilke and in the past it has been criticized by drivers as being difficult to pass. Rumors suggest the track has been slightly modified to allow for more driver skill to make the race a more exciting one.

In 2012 Sebastian Vettel had won 4 races in a row and took the lead over Fernando Alonso. Vettel seems destined to win a 3rd straight World Constructors Championship while Alonso fans hope he can hold off the faster driver and make a run for his 3rd title. All the other drivers might technically have a chance but their goal from here on in is to simply win races and perform well. It certainly will be a competitive finish to this season and far more entertaining than in 2011 when the RedBulls were simply too fast for everyone and the season was the most predictable ever with Vettel winning the title after the Japanese Grand Prix with a handful of races to go.

Practise for the event is on November 1st to 2nd while the qualifying takes place November 2nd with the race taking place November 3rd at 17:00 local time.

Circuit Information

Number of Laps: 55 Circuit Length: 5.554km Lap Record: 1:40.279 by Sebastian Vettel 2009

Why is Baseball Betting so Profitable for Sharp Sports Bettors?
Bet Labs, MLB
by PJ on April 1, 2013
Baseball Betting ↔

With March Madness winding down and the first week of the 2013 MLB season underway, it’s time to turn our attention to arguably the most profitable sport for sharp sports bettors, Major League Baseball. Before we focus on specific MLB betting systems, it’s important to first outline how baseball betting differs from basketball and football.

1. MLB is a moneyline sport

Because baseball is a low scoring game, the majority of money bet on MLB is on the moneyline. With moneylines, bettors are simply wagering on which team will win the game. This differs from football and basketball, where the bulk of money is bet on point spreads.

2. With baseball betting, you don’t need to win 52.4% of your wagers to be profitable

When wagering on basketball and football point spreads, bettors must win 52.4% of their games (assuming a vig of -110) in order to break-even. This can be confusing for bettors trying their hands at baseball for the first time because lower winning percentages can still be extremely profitable when consistently betting moneyline underdogs.

For example, our MLB Best Bets had a win rate of 42.8% last season, but finished +29.35 units on the year (betting 1 unit per play) because of the plus-money payouts of moneyline underdogs.

That means a bettor wagering $100 on each our MLB picks last year finished the season with a profit of $2,935 ($100 x 29.35).

3. The long MLB season provides many opportunities to take advantage of your edge

Some sports fans find the 2,430-game MLB regular season to be long and drawn out. However, for sharp sports bettors, more games means more opportunities to take advantage of their edge and maximize units won.

For example, if your betting system has a return on investment (ROI) of 2%, you’ll average a profit of $2 for every $100 bet placed.

Assuming this 2% ROI, it’s reasonable to expect your system to result in 486 MLB bets and 51 NFL bets over the respective seasons of each sport. (We arrived at these numbers by taking 20% of each sport’s total regular season games played). Remember, the NFL plays 256 games in a normal regular season compared to the MLB’s 2,430.

Even though the ROI is exactly the same for both sports, the sheer volume of wagering opportunities creates a significant difference in the amount of units this system will win for each sport.

A 2% ROI applied to 486 MLB games would result in a profit of +9.72 units, while that same ROI applied to 51 NFL games only earns a profit of +1.02 units.

An MLB bettor wagering $500 on each play ($500 x 9.72 units) would finish the season with a profit of $4,860. Conversely, a $500 NFL bettor earning the exact same ROI would have finished the season with a profit of $510 ($500 x 1.02 units).

The only difference between these two bettors is that a 2% edge in baseball offers exponentially more wagering opportunities than football and, in turn, a profit that’s more than 9.5 times greater for the baseball bettor.

Profitable Baseball Betting Systems

While explaining the advantages that the long MLB season provides, we assumed a betting system with a 2% ROI. For anyone with experience betting on sports, assuming a winning betting system is a lot easier said than done.

As a result, we used our Bet Labs software to show how Betting Against the Public can provide winning betting systems for MLB bettors.

In order to develop this contrarian betting strategy, we started by adding Bet Labs’ Moneyline % and Favorite/Dog Filters to quickly analyze how MLB underdogs receiving less than 30% of moneyline bets had performed over the past eight seasons.

Please note that the Moneyline Betting Percentages used in this analysis represent Sports Insights’ MLB Betting Trends data, which is the average of public betting percentages provided by 7 of the largest offshore sportsbooks.

We recommend that anyone attempting to use or recreate this analysis should use Sports Insights’ betting trends data to ensure they’re accessing betting activity across the entire sports betting marketplace and not the wagering action at just one sportsbook or betting consensus data, which does not represent actual wagers placed.

As you can see in the screenshot below, this system has resulted in a profit of +64.11 units, but the large number of games needed to earn that profit produces a low 0.9% ROI.

#3 – Don’t Get Exotic

Don’t start getting too smart. Keep your Over/Under bets to the basic 2.5 goals or whatever the ‘even money’ line is for a particular match, typically between 2 and 3 goals depending upon the teams involved or the league.

The fact is, this is where the value is.

Sure, a bookmaker might be offering 5.00 for the Over 4.5 goals, but in general, bookmakers who offer these sorts of irregular goal total markets, tend to take a larger than average commission.

At the same time, value is wherever you can find it. And if you’ve crunched the numbers and have identified greater value in a higher or lower than typical goal total line, then by all means, take advantage of it.

But in general, I would encourage you to stick to the basics and concentrate on ‘even money’ Over/Under lines. You’ll find your results to be far more consistent.

And in terms of analysis, it’s far easier to find historical odds data resources for analysis on the web for these markets than it is the more exotic variety.
#4 – Identify Scoring Potential

By all means, analyse scorelines. But if you really want to improve your Over/Under betting, look at some deeper stats.

With any sort of analysis, we’re attempting to guage a team’s true potential in a given match or contest. And simple goals and scorelines aren’t always the best way to do that.

So look deeper. Try to develop an analysis that incorporates statistical categories that can give an overall better indication of a teams base form and their true scoring potential.

Look at shots on goal for and against, shots on target for and against, goal for shot conversion rates. The problem with goals is that they can be a little inconsistent and sometimes show wild fluctuation.

More than that, the general public usually only considers scorelines and bookmakers more or less frame their odds on what the expectation is of the average football bettor. Having a deeper understanding of scoring potential can give you a great edge and will see you reap the rewards on the balance sheet.
#5 – Consider The Situation

Situational analysis is a great part of my overall assessment when betting Over/Unders.

Look at how the competiting clubs have performed in similar situations.

When a particular club is a heavy underdog away from home, have they typically been involved in higher or lower scoring matches? When playing inferior opponents, do they have the tendancy to run up the score or do they just go through the motions and do just enough to get the win?

And don’t just look at the situational trends of the particular clubs competiting. Look deeper and seek out league wide trends. Are matches higher scoring at the beginning of the league season or towards the end?

These sorts of things are good to take into account in your overall analysis, and can often give you an edge and an angle that the general betting public just simply isn’t aware of.

How do you win when betting Over/Under points or goal totals? What are the key things to keep in mind when making your selections? Today betting analyst Andrew Brocker helps us out by offering us key considerations and in the process hopefully help us improve our own success when betting on points or goal totals.

When I first began my journey as a betting analyst, my main focus was on head to head and handicap betting. I was soley focussed on who would win and by how much.

Although I was well aware of Overs/Unders and the potential to bet on whether a match would end above or below the goal or points total, it took me a while to pay any real attention to the prospect of actually betting them.

And to be honest, it wasn’t until a friend of mine made the claim that betting on points or goal totals was, in his words, a crapshoot.

Of course, this sort of claim only stirred my ambition and love for a challenge. “A crapshoot you say? Hmm, we’ll see about that.”

So I threw myself into analysing Over/Unders. And after a great deal of work and frustration and trial and error, I eventually developed an approach that has been quite successful for me in betting goal totals in football and point totals in the NFL and NBA.

And so in this article, I will share with you the key points of that approach in the hope that you too can improve your Over/Under betting.

#1 – Last Week Doesn’t Mean Much

Yes, recent form matters. But it doesn’t matter as much as most people think. At least when it comes to outwitting the odds.

Time and again, I will see people refer what a particular team has done in the last 3 weeks, 4 weeks or similar.

Yes, a club may have scored many goals or points in recent weeks or games. But does this really give you an accurate assessment of a team’s true potential to score?

No, not really.

To obtain a true assessment of a team’s potential to score you have to look deeper and you have to take a longer term view. Consider their scoring form over the last 20 matches, or even longer. It depends upon the sport, league and in general, the number and frequency of games played.

Yes, recent form should be taken into account. But a sure way to continually come out on the wrong side of an Over/Under bet, is to become easily seduced by a recent run of high or low scoring games.

And more to the point, it’s recent form that the naive betting public is often seduced by, which means their are opportunities in the Over/Under markets for those of us who like to consider true potential rather than impulsive knee-jerk reactions to a mere few weeks of form.

#2 – Track Ocurrences Not Averages

This is once again, something I see all too often, people quoting scoring averages when assessing a particular match.

Averages might be ok when analysing a particularly large sample size with scorelines of limited variance. But the problem is that even over a sample size of for example 15 matches, one irregular result can distort the average.

Consider the following hypothetical example.

Let’s say Chelsea have played 15 home matches with 45 total goals scored in those matches. That’s an average of 3 goals scored per match. The Over/Under 2.5 goals is paying even money. Looks tempting considering Chelsea’s home form in goal totals.

Now let’s say that two of those 15 matches were particularly high scoring, for example, a 4-2 and a 5-1 result, seeing a total of 12 combined goals scored. These two irregular results have severely distored the average, which would be 2.53 in the other 13 matches.

What may have looked like an excellent opportunity to bet the Over 2.5 goals, suddently seems less enticing.

So while averages can be helpful in large sample sizes, in general, it’s best to track occurences.

Look at how many times a team has gone over or under a particular goal total. In our Chelsea example, it could well be that while the average for the 15 home matches may be 3 goals per match, but that the actual number of times Chelsea home games have gone Over 2.5 goals could be less than 50% with a few high scoring matches giving an inaccurate and distorted impression. Perhaps Chelsea home games have only gone over 2.5 goals on 7 occasions.

Even if the average is 3 goals per match, would you feel good about betting the Over if the occurence rate was so low? Probably not.

The “fix” is a widespread belief among amateur bettors. Every now and again, accusations of a fix even make it into respected books and magazines.

I don’t believe that NFL games are fixed and here’s why. First, over the past 25 years, I have known a number of handicappers, including myself, who have consistently won money betting the NFL. If the games weren’t honest, we couldn’t have won. Handicapping just couldn’t overcome players who were dumping or shaving points. Second, in order to fix a game, two events would have to occur. The fixer would have to get important players involved, and be able to bet enough to overcome the payments he has made to the crooked players.

Over the last 15 years, NFL salaries have skyrocketed. Important players, who would have to be in on the fix for it to work, make well into the millions each season. They make even more from endorsements and advertisements. It would cost a lot of money to get to such players. And you could never fix a game with one player alone; at least a few would have to bought.

The fixer would then have to bet enough on the game to turn a profit on the deal. In order to bet this big he would have to use hundreds or thousands of bookmakers.

And bookmakers would definitely notice when they saw this tidal wave of money coming in on one team. As the money came in from all over the country, bookmakers would be in a race to lay off the money with other bookmakers. When huge money comes in from seemingly nowhere it is called unnatural money, and bookmakers are always suspicious about it. With multiple millions suddenly coming in, suspicion would be rampant.

When bookmakers see unnatural money, they take games off the board until they know the reason for it. And there is always a reasonable explanation. Sometimes it’s an injury that comes to light. Sometimes a big name in betting likes the team.

Bookmakers, who themselves depend on accurate handicapping, know that the only way they can survive is for NFL games to be honest. Coups, such as the ones that have tarnished college basketball from time to time, could wipe them out. Bookmakers would be the first to turn in anyone who tried to fix a game.

Believers in fixes also point to referees as possible culprits. Since referees make far less money than players and exert great control over games, this could be feasible except for two things.

First, the NFL does a very close background check on potential referees. Before anyone is allowed to ref NFL games, a lot of solid sources have to consider him bribe-proof.

Second, sources in Las Vegas keep records on which referees work which games and correlate the data with any big money that comes in on a game. If any suspicious correlation between a particular ref and unnatural money turned up, it would be reported immediately to the NFL.

Don’t use the fix as an excuse to lose. Instead, get to work on your handicapping.
– See more at: http://www.casinocenter.com/the-6-big-myths-of-sports-betting/#sthash.K7mOqSy4.dpuf

For now I’ll focus on men’s tennis betting, as women’s tennis is an entirely different proposition and has about as much resemblance to the men’s game as boxing does to fencing.

The men’s tour is split into tiers of events, with the four Grand Slams of the Australian Open, French Open, Wimbledon and the US Open all offering double the ranking points of the second tier of events, the Masters 1,000 series.

Winning a Slam will gain you 2,000 ranking points, while as the name suggests it’s 1,000 points for a Masters title of which there are nine, plus the World Tour Finals for the top eight players of the season according to the yearly race.

Below that come the ATP 500 and ATP 250 events around the world and there are also Davis Cup matches, which is the yearly team competition, which also provides ranking points and the top players will also play a number of exhibition events in the year.

The tiers below are the Challenger Tour, which isn’t televised, but can be streamed and sometimes attracts top players who for reasons of form or fitness drop down a level and generally face players of much lower ranking.

The format for all of these events apart from the Slams (and Davis Cup) is the best of three sets, with the Slams being the only ones played over five sets these days.

The longer matches I find are more profitable to bet on and this is because you usually get a more accurate reflection of the respective abilities of the two players over longer matches. The three set format more often leads to shock results whereas it’s much harder to take three sets from a superior opponent, obviously.

Markets

The vast majority of tennis matches are live streamed now and Betfair Live Video offers matches on most days throughout the tennis year, which is from January 1 to around November 15.

The principal tennis markets are:

Tournament: Outright Winner (and in larger events there are more markets, such as To Reach the Final, Player Progress, Quarter Winners.

Match: Match Odds, Set Betting, Total Games, Set Handicap, Game Handicap, Number of Sets, To win a set? Most Aces and Number of Sets.

Start Date: 23rd September 2014 20:00 (UK) Surface: Hard Court

Where can I watch this Event? You can stay up to date with real time scores & statistics for Alex Bolt vs Peter Polansky here

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Summary – Our Prediction for Bolt v Polansky :

Polansky has a very strong hard court record so far this year with 16 Wins / 13 Losses. Whereas his opponent Bolt has lost more matches than he was won on this surface.

Also, Polansky has made it to the round of 16 at this event (Napa Challanger) before back in 2013. The experience of the event, how the court plays (surface speed for example) could prove a crucial factor in this match.

But it’s not just a whole heap of negative stats for Alex Bolt. He’s still young and improving his game all the time, we’ve watched him this year and he’s certainly got potential. Although his aforementioned hard court record is poor, he has won 33 matches this year and lost just 20 – mainly because of his great results during the clay court season.

Match Winner Pick: Available to VIP Club Members Only – Join our Club for Free 1 Month – We’ll start by sending our Pick for this Match and then give a minimum of 25 more predictions this month. More Details Below. If you’d bet £100 on our picks, you’d now have over £18,000

Juventus crowned champions of Italy

Juventus have been crowned champions of Italy for a third season running last term. They also set a new points record for Serie A. Antonio Conte’s men became the first team to finish a Serie A season with more than 100 points. Juventus have won the title every year since their former midfielder Conte took charge in the summer of 2011.

• Champions: Juventus (Champions League group stage)
• Runners-up: Roma (Champions League group stage)
• Third place: Napoli (Champions League play-off)
• Fourth place: Fiorentina (Europa League group stage)
• Fifth place: Inter (Europa League play-off)
• Seventh place: Torino (Europa League QR3)
• Relegated: Catania, Bologna, Livorno
• Promoted: Palermo, Empoli, Cesena

Fourth-placed Fiorentina and Inter, in fifth spot, qualified for the UEFA Europa League. Parma qualified for Europe for the first time since 2006 after pipping Torino to sixth place in Serie A on the final day of the season. Yet the Italian Olympic Committee stripped them of their place and handed it Torino due to an unpaid tax bill of €300,000. Catania, Bologna, Livorno were relegated from Serie A, while Palermo, Empoli, Cesena have earned promotion to the top flight.

Juventus appoint Massimiliano Allegri as new coach

Juventus begin their Serie A title defence under new coach Massimiliano Allegri. Juventus were still celebrating their third straight Serie A title when Antonio Conte announced he was quitting the club. Conte has since taken the Italy job, paving the way for Allegri, whose four-year spell at Milan ended in January, to take the reins. Allegri joined Milan from Cagliari in the summer of 2010 and in his first season led them to their first Scudetto since 2004, though the Rossoneri finished second to Juventus the following year.
Milan replace Seedorf with Inzaghi

Milan have parted company with Clarence Seedorf just five months into his contract and named Filippo Inzaghi as the Dutchman’s successor. The 40-year-old former Italian international striker has inked a two-year deal to become the Rossoneri’s third coach this year. Seedorf, who replaced Massimiliano Allegri in January, departs San Siro after overseeing a run of 11 wins from 19 Serie A outings as Milan finished the 2013/14 campaign in eighth. Inzaghi underlined his coaching credentials during two years in charge of the club’s Allievi Nazionali team, leading them to the round of 16 in this season’s inaugural UEFA Youth League.
Juventus, Roma, Napoli…

Juventus look to continue their success in the domestic league, while Roma and Napoli will surely compete for the top spot. Inter continue to rebuild under Walter Mazzarri, and on the red and black side of the San Siro, it’s up to Filippo Inzaghi to pick up the pieces for Milan after a horrible 2013/14 campaign. He was the right appointment to get the fans back onside despite a lack of coaching experience and it remains to be seen what he can do.

This year has proved difficult in predicting who will finish where, and I believe that any of five clubs could clinch the Premier League title come May. Chelsea and Liverpool have spent big this year, while Arsenal, Manchester United and City have also splashed some cash with some of the players being right coups. The fight for survival is also going to be a close run affair, but here is who could be the winners and losers this season.

1. Chelsea

Under the leadership of Mourinho it’s hard to discount the blues for any sort of silverware and it’s the same team I had at the top this time last year. But signings such as lethal goal scorer Diego Costa and Cesc Fabregas, they can narrowly clinch it.

2. Manchester City

City have looked to strengthen their defence with Bacary Sagna on a free and Eliaquim Mangala from Porto, and it will also be interesting to see how much Frank Lampard will feature during his loan spell. But all things considered they will be right up there again this year but just pipped to the post by Chelsea.

3. Manchester United

Van Gaal has come in to essentially turn things around in what is a transition period for the Red Devils. We will see vast improvements in their performances and the return of Darren Fletcher and signings Herrera and Shaw will certainly aid this. With an impressive pre-season under their belts I can almost be certain that they will bounce back into the top four.

4. Liverpool

Last season could be seen as a missed opportunity and there is a definite void missing with the absence of Luis Suarez. But they have spent wisely on some good, quality players and should do well on their return to the Champions League too. They will have to battle hard to finish in the top four this year with many teams upping their game, but it shouldn’t be seen as a negative. Despite this, don’t rule out any cup success.

5. Arsenal

The big signing of Sanchez and the 3-0 win over Manchester City will certainly give fans hope of similar success again after ending their long wait for a trophy last season. But looking at the other teams above, they will do very well to push them all the way through the course of the season. Although I wouldn’t count them out on more cup success and depending on who else they sign during the transfer window, they could creep into the top four.

6. Everton

Martinez has managed to extend the contracts of youngsters John Stones, Seamus Coleman and Ross Barkley along with the permanent signing of Romelu Lukaku. As a result they will aim to finish with another place in Europe and will hope that the chance to play in the Europa League this season will not disadvantage them.

7. Tottenham

Another new manager at the helm and Pochettino will look to take advantage of the talented squad he has at his disposal. I think we will see improved displays by the likes of Lamela and hopefully he will continue to do the same just like he did as the Saints boss.

18. Leicester City

They did a great job in getting promoted last season but don’t have the Premier League quality like QPR who I think are most likely to survive out of the newly promoted teams. The Foxes are going to find it hard to retain a Premier League place but won’t go down without a fight.

19. West Brom

The Baggies were lucky not to be relegated last season and I think their luck will run out this time around. They do have defensive experience in Lescott but unfortunately I think they will go down regardless.

20. Burnley

A team that is always going to be tipped for relegation whenever they re-emerge from the Championship. They have a good partnership in strikers Ings and Vokes but they will do well to avoid an immediate return to the 2nd tier.

Clairvoyant powers were indeed beneficial but also it would take the thrill of betting. In addition, since no one on this property is part, has to be resorted to other means of predicting results as close as possible to visit or just the output of a match to match. Read our betting tips given the tips of our two expert Hans tip core and Serdar Ferrero. Through detailed analysis and consideration of the Fixtures, almost all factors are included in the tips.

Increasing the chances

Of course, even the most accurate of all the preparations provides sports betting tips no guarantee of winning, but the reviews of our experts in the long term will increase the chances. These are also detailed analysis and previews of upcoming Bundesliga games and other soccer leagues.

Sometimes, there are game pairings, in which the output of the betting seems almost certain, however, you should not let alone the names of two teams to convince, because the precise analysis of our experts will be added each factor in recent weeks and months. Sometimes, there are game pairings, in which the output of the betting seems almost certain, however, you should not let alone the names of two teams to convince, because the precise analysis of our experts will be added each factor in recent weeks and months. Violations leading scorer can quickly allowing your favourites of the lot and make a football tip destroyed, while the short-term commitment of a player could also make a splash.

Apart from the last week’s performances of the teams and their form, and the past record of this pair, also play a major role in current events. These include especially coaching change that can make the appearance of a team unpredictable, but attracted quite often-positive effects on themselves.

One tip is the sum of all factors

You should tap to all indicators that can determine a game. From the smallest violation of the master keeper of the weather up to the good atmosphere in the home of all factors, play a more or less important role and they can affect the chances of a sports betting tips on the upper level.

Here I would have a simple but highly effective strategy.

a) There gets to 90% better odds than traditional bookmakers and you

b) Through, the often-large rate fluctuations you can build the perfect pledge.

That is even with my strategy, requirement is that it is an In-Play (Live) is bet and the game (football) can watch live. Another requirement is that it is a game, in which a goal is already exactly like, i.e. it should be 1:0 or 0:1. It would be good if run at the time. Ideally, this should be as at the 40th Minutes pass. The odds of this are often still very high – e.g. at 2.60 on my last match AC Milan – Lecce with the score at 1-0 in the 40th Minute of the game. Now, sit back for a few minutes and watched the game continues, as already mentioned, both teams now tried without conceding a goal to get into the mid-term in order to gain new powers.

In the period up to half time and in the mid-term the market is changing, i.e. the quota for “Over 2.5 goals” and “Less than 2.5 goals” most significant. To stay with my example, where the rate fell from 2.60 to 2.24 previously mentioned – a perfect situation for a bet! Now “layt” you “Under 2.5 Goals”, i.e. to bet against it, and has now for each of the two endings, so “Over 2.5 Goals’ or ‘Under 2.5 Goals’ a secure income.

The profits are not too small. During the trial period of this system I once only 4 euros “gebacked” and then following it for a minimum of 4.70 to 5 euros even for “Malays.”

It depending on how much the rates have changed. Thus, for only 4 euros already safe use 0.70 to 1.00 euros net profit, that is always around 20% of the stake, which is extremely high. With higher stakes, increases logically secure the net profit.

To set quotas may need to assess the likelihood of bookmakers for the occurrence of a certain event in the future. Larger bookies work here with extremely large, statistical materials. They also employ for people with experience and sports knowledge. Smaller bookmakers adhere easily to the rates in the industry sizes and differ only slightly from it.

The European format of betting odds is expressed in decimal (e.g. 1.50). The ratio in this case indicates the ratio of use to potential profit. The amount payable is calculated by multiplying the use of the odd. Sets example to 100 euros a betting output which is offered with odds 1.50, the payout if successful, is EUR 150 (1.5 * 100 Euro). To calculate the net profit, you have to deduct from the amount paid, of course, the use – in this case, the gain is 50 euros (150 euros – 100 euros).

For the determination of the rate bookmaker first calculates the probability of each event. The sum of the probabilities of the possible outcomes is mathematically always 100% or decimal first For example, estimates one bookmaker enter the probabilities for the match against Hamburger SV Nuremberg as follows: Hamburg win: 50% (shown in decimal: 0.50) Draw: 30% (0.30) victory Nuremberg: 20% (0.20). Then it is calculated the fair rates by the following formula: Q = 1 / W (where Q is the ratio and the probability W). For the above example then results in the following ratios: Hamburg win: 2.00 (= 1 / 0.50) Draws: 3.33 (= 1 / 0.30) victory Nuremberg: 5.00 (= 1 / 0.20). These are fair odds from bookmakers multiplied by a factor, which is less than 1. This factor can influence his own profit greatly. Its theoretical goal is, that in the wake of all the bets Wetteilnehmer so on the 3 ways to distribute that in any case he makes his planned profit.

Will he e.g. 10 percent of the stakes withheld, it will multiply the fair odds with the value of 0.90, he wants to keep 15 percent, and he takes a factor of 0.85. Let us say, our bookmaker is very fair, then it multiplies the odds by a factor of 0.93. When real rates are then: Hamburg win: 1.86 (= 2.00 * 0.93) Draws: 3.10 (= 3.33 * 0.93) victory Nuremberg: 4.65 (= 5.00 * 0.93).

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