#3 – Don’t Get Exotic

Don’t start getting too smart. Keep your Over/Under bets to the basic 2.5 goals or whatever the ‘even money’ line is for a particular match, typically between 2 and 3 goals depending upon the teams involved or the league.

The fact is, this is where the value is.

Sure, a bookmaker might be offering 5.00 for the Over 4.5 goals, but in general, bookmakers who offer these sorts of irregular goal total markets, tend to take a larger than average commission.

At the same time, value is wherever you can find it. And if you’ve crunched the numbers and have identified greater value in a higher or lower than typical goal total line, then by all means, take advantage of it.

But in general, I would encourage you to stick to the basics and concentrate on ‘even money’ Over/Under lines. You’ll find your results to be far more consistent.

And in terms of analysis, it’s far easier to find historical odds data resources for analysis on the web for these markets than it is the more exotic variety.
#4 – Identify Scoring Potential

By all means, analyse scorelines. But if you really want to improve your Over/Under betting, look at some deeper stats.

With any sort of analysis, we’re attempting to guage a team’s true potential in a given match or contest. And simple goals and scorelines aren’t always the best way to do that.

So look deeper. Try to develop an analysis that incorporates statistical categories that can give an overall better indication of a teams base form and their true scoring potential.

Look at shots on goal for and against, shots on target for and against, goal for shot conversion rates. The problem with goals is that they can be a little inconsistent and sometimes show wild fluctuation.

More than that, the general public usually only considers scorelines and bookmakers more or less frame their odds on what the expectation is of the average football bettor. Having a deeper understanding of scoring potential can give you a great edge and will see you reap the rewards on the balance sheet.
#5 – Consider The Situation

Situational analysis is a great part of my overall assessment when betting Over/Unders.

Look at how the competiting clubs have performed in similar situations.

When a particular club is a heavy underdog away from home, have they typically been involved in higher or lower scoring matches? When playing inferior opponents, do they have the tendancy to run up the score or do they just go through the motions and do just enough to get the win?

And don’t just look at the situational trends of the particular clubs competiting. Look deeper and seek out league wide trends. Are matches higher scoring at the beginning of the league season or towards the end?

These sorts of things are good to take into account in your overall analysis, and can often give you an edge and an angle that the general betting public just simply isn’t aware of.


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